Increased ICE Activity Triggers Child Care Workforce Crisis

Concerns surrounding the impact of intensified immigration enforcement in the United States are growing, particularly in the child care sector. A recent report from the progressive think tank, New America, highlights a significant decline in both child care workers and mothers in the workforce. Released on March 15, 2025, the report indicates that increased arrests by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have created a “chilling effect” on the industry.

According to the report, titled “The Impact of Increased ICE Activity on the Child Care Workforce and Mothers’ Employment,” approximately 77,000 U.S.-born mothers with children aged 0 to 5 exited the workforce between January 2025 and July 2025. This drop corresponds with a 3 percent decline in mothers’ labor force participation during the same period, as noted by report author Chris Herbst, a professor at Arizona State University.

The report also reveals a substantial reduction in the number of foreign-born child care workers. Specifically, there was a loss of 39,000 immigrant workers in the child care sector, exacerbating the challenges faced by working mothers who depend on these employees for support.

“Because immigration enforcement has made it more difficult for foreign-born workers to do their jobs, their native-born counterparts who depend on their immigrant colleagues have suddenly found that it’s more difficult to do their jobs as well,” Herbst explained. While most foreign-born child care workers are in the U.S. legally, heightened ICE activity has instilled fear in the workforce, particularly following the high-profile detention of a daycare worker in Chicago last month.

The report suggests that there has been a notable decrease in the number of Hispanic or Mexican U.S.-born individuals entering the child care field. “These are individuals who should not be afraid of ICE,” Herbst stated. “They are not eligible to be deported, and yet they are also leaving the child care sector, and I think for that reason, one of the potential explanations we have is that they’ve been chilled out of the labor force.”

Documenting Employment Trends Amid ICE Enforcement

Herbst emphasized that this report provides some of the first empirical evidence regarding the labor market outcomes stemming from the recent surge in immigration enforcement. He underscored the importance of monitoring employment figures for child care workers and mothers of preschool-aged children, particularly given the current political climate surrounding immigration.

Researchers utilized employment data from the Current Population Survey alongside ICE arrest statistics from the Deportation Data Project to compile their findings. The analysis revealed that the impact of immigration enforcement is especially pronounced in the child care industry, where disruptions can severely affect mothers’ employment opportunities.

President Donald Trump notably rescinded a directive from former President Joe Biden that had previously protected child care centers from ICE interventions. The report found that workers in formal child care centers are particularly vulnerable to the repercussions of increased enforcement, as these facilities are often subject to unannounced visits from state regulators.

“The center-based sector is more exposed,” Herbst noted. “Their wages are reported for tax purposes, which adds an extra layer of visibility that can lead to increased fear and confusion among workers.” As a result, some have opted to transition from formal settings to private households in search of greater job security and less exposure to enforcement actions.

Herbst also pointed out that the report’s estimates may underestimate the true extent of ICE’s impact on the child care workforce. “What I hope this report does is start a conversation about the potential trade-offs associated with this kind of immigration policy,” he said. “The administration has talked a lot about the potential benefits. I don’t think that we as a country have really started to reckon with the potential downsides of this kind of policy.”

With ICE receiving over $170 billion in funding over four years for enhanced enforcement activities, Herbst insists that researchers must continue to investigate the potential effects of these policies. “I would anticipate in the months and years ahead that we will begin to have a full reckoning of the sort of trade-offs associated with this kind of policy,” he remarked.

As the discourse surrounding immigration enforcement evolves, Herbst foresees that the disruptive effects on mothers and child care workers will become increasingly pronounced. “Even if you look at just the chilling effects alone, I think people are feeling an unprecedented amount of fear and confusion in this new environment,” he concluded.