Gaza Ceasefire Talks Reach Pivotal Stage as Challenges Loom

Ceasefire negotiations concerning Gaza have entered a critical phase as one Israeli hostage remains unaccounted for, over a month after the truce took effect. This situation is pivotal for fulfilling a key element of President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan. Significant obstacles persist, however, as negotiators strive to navigate the complexities of advancing to the second phase of the plan, which aims to prevent a resurgence of violence.

According to reports, Trump indicated last week that phase two would begin “pretty soon,” although no specific timeline was provided. Axios revealed that the White House hopes to announce the next stage before Christmas, which would include a new governance framework for Gaza. The second phase encompasses several ambitious goals: establishing a new governing body, disarming Hamas, and deploying an International Stabilization Force (ISF) to assume responsibilities currently held by the Israel Defense Forces in parts of Gaza.

During a panel at the Doha Forum in Qatar, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani emphasized the urgency of the discussions, describing the current moment as “critical.” He asserted that a complete ceasefire requires the full withdrawal of Israeli forces and restoring stability in Gaza, which has not yet been achieved.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty echoed these sentiments, stating that the ISF must be deployed “as soon as possible.” Concerns also emerged from Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, who warned that the existing ceasefire cannot endure much longer without additional measures being implemented.

As of now, the ceasefire, which commenced on October 10, 2023, has facilitated the return of 20 living hostages and the remains of 27 others to Israel. The body of the final hostage, Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old police officer killed during the October 7 attack, has yet to be recovered despite extensive search efforts. Israel has also released Palestinian prisoners as part of the exchange agreement.

Israeli officials have reiterated that all hostages must be returned before a second phase deal can be finalized. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for an “intensive and immediate effort” to ensure that this commitment is fulfilled. While Israel agreed to halt its military operations during the ceasefire, hostilities have continued, with Israeli strikes resulting in over 350 fatalities since the agreement began, raising the total death toll in Gaza to more than 70,000, according to figures from the Palestinian Health Ministry.

The initial phase of the ceasefire included a commitment to increase the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Yet, United Nations experts have indicated that the number of aid trucks entering the region has not reached the target of 600 vehicles per day. Although Israel announced plans to reopen the Rafah crossing to allow Palestinians to enter Egypt, it will not permit reciprocal crossings until Gvili’s remains are returned.

As the first phase progresses, analysts have raised concerns about the complexities of the second phase, which includes security arrangements and governance issues. Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, remarked that negotiators face challenges that may be insurmountable. He questioned whether an international force could effectively dismantle Hamas, a goal that has eluded Israel in its military efforts over the last two years.

While Trump’s peace plan mandates that Hamas disarm, the group has maintained its control over Gaza during the ceasefire and has shown no intention of disarmament. Hellyer cautioned that enforcing a governance structure without the support of the local population could lead to a new form of occupation.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan indicated that discussions about the ISF’s mandate and operational rules remain ongoing, asserting that the primary goal should be to separate Israelis and Palestinians along the border. He acknowledged the multitude of details still to be worked out and expressed optimism that once the ISF is deployed, progress could be made.

Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, echoed the concerns regarding the stabilization force. He noted that no state has yet committed to supporting its deployment in Gaza, which raises questions about the feasibility of implementing the second phase of the plan. Gerges characterized the current situation as an illusion of a ceasefire, highlighting that Palestinian civilians continue to suffer daily.

Despite some improvements in humanitarian conditions, Gerges described the situation as “catastrophic,” underscoring the urgent need for effective action to ensure lasting peace and stability in the region.