Mets Eye Tarik Skubal: What Would a Trade Cost?

The New York Mets are expected to explore a trade for Tarik Skubal if the Detroit Tigers make the standout pitcher available this winter. Skubal, a 28-year-old left-handed pitcher, is currently regarded as one of the top talents in baseball and is on track to win his second consecutive American League Cy Young Award. His impressive stats include a record of 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA, a 0.891 WHIP, and a remarkable 241 strikeouts over 195.1 innings pitched this season.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Skubal’s performance has been outstanding, with a record of 38-13, a 2.39 ERA, and 571 strikeouts across 77 starts, totaling 467.2 innings. Under the previous ownership of the late Mike Ilitch, it is likely Skubal would have secured a long-term contract, similar to those given to stars like Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera. However, under the management of his son, Christopher Ilitch, the situation appears uncertain.

Skubal is set to become a free agent after the 2026 season, and indications suggest that the Tigers have not prioritized extending his contract. A report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press noted that Detroit’s previous offer for an extension last winter was for four years and under $100 million, a figure that falls short of Skubal’s market value. Speculation from Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that Skubal and his representatives may seek a deal worth around $400 million. When asked about the potential for an extension, Christopher Ilitch remarked, “We’re in 2025 right now.”

Uncertainty surrounding Skubal’s future raises concerns for the Tigers. Since Christopher Ilitch took over, the team has acted like a mid-market club, and trading Skubal would signify a willingness to take a step back after a season that saw them falter late, losing the AL Central title. Despite this, the Tigers advanced past the Cleveland Guardians in the Wild Card Series before exiting in the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. Skubal’s postseason performance was notable, allowing only four earned runs on 10 hits over 20.2 innings pitched, achieving a 1.74 ERA with 36 strikeouts against just four walks.

If the Tigers do not see a realistic chance of retaining Skubal, they may look to trade him this winter or at the 2026 trade deadline, where interest is likely to be high. The Mets are particularly in need of a strong arm after their rotation struggled during a disappointing season. Currently, their most reliable options include top prospect Nolan McLean, who made a successful debut, and Clay Holmes as a mid-to-lower rotation choice.

The Mets’ rotation has faced significant challenges, with David Peterson transitioning from All-Star to liability, Sean Manaea struggling with injuries, and Kodai Senga experiencing a loss of form after a mid-June hamstring issue. A trade for Skubal would require Mets’ president of baseball operations David Stearns to reconsider his stance on investing heavily in starting pitchers.

To make a competitive offer for Skubal, the Mets would likely need to part with some top prospects. While McLean may be deemed untouchable, the Mets could include players like Jonah Tong or Brandon Sproat, along with other top prospects such as outfielder Carson Benge and infielder/outfielder Jett Williams. Another intriguing option could be Mark Vientos, who previously hit 27 home runs, and may benefit from a fresh start and consistent playing time.

Interestingly, the Tigers have previously expressed interest in Brett Baty, who has emerged as a viable everyday third baseman for the Mets. As the offseason approaches, the potential for a trade involving Tarik Skubal remains a focal point for both teams, with significant implications for their futures.