U.S. Military Buildup in Caribbean Raises Concerns Over Venezuela

The U.S. military has increased its presence along South America’s northern coast, a move officials claim is targeted at “narco-terrorists.” Analysts, however, express skepticism, suggesting that the actual aim of the Trump administration may be regime change in Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro, who has led the country since 2013, is responding defensively. He has mobilized militias and reservists nationwide, declaring a state of heightened military readiness as the threat of invasion looms.

In recent weeks, Maduro has enacted an emergency decree and proclaimed a “republic in arms.” He has ordered armed forces, police, and militia to deploy across 284 battlefronts, particularly along sensitive borders, including a significant concentration of 25,000 soldiers near Colombia, which is viewed as a potential route for infiltration. Reports indicate that approximately 4.5 million members of the National Bolivarian Militia, a civilian auxiliary force established in 2005, have also mobilized. Civilians are now receiving training in weapon handling and tactical operations to form local “people’s defense” committees.

This military readiness comes in response to months of increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, where the Pentagon has deployed destroyers and amphibious ships. While the U.S. maintains a more advanced military capability than Venezuela, experts argue that this may not be sufficient to displace Maduro or bolster opposition figures within the country.

Maduro’s regime benefits from international support, particularly from Russia, which reportedly has supplied the country with 5,000 Igla-S man-portable anti-aircraft missiles. On October 28, 2023, a Russian Il-76 heavy cargo plane, linked to military logistics, landed in Caracas after traveling from the Caucasus and West Africa. This development signals Russia’s capacity to provide military aid quickly and efficiently.

Iran has also established a presence in Venezuela’s drone program, contributing to its capabilities over the years. Since 2005, Cuba has embedded intelligence and security advisers in Venezuelan military services, enhancing the regime’s ability to manage dissent and maintain loyalty among its ranks.

Despite this support, any direct U.S. military intervention risks solidifying Maduro’s position rather than fostering a change in leadership. The Venezuelan opposition, fragmented and weakened after a disputed election in 2024, lacks the cohesion necessary to mount a significant challenge to the regime. The Democratic Unitary Platform, which represents the opposition, struggles between factions favoring different approaches—one advocating for pressure and another for participation.

The recent awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to opposition figure María Corina Machado on October 10, 2023, provided a morale boost but has not translated into decisive action against Maduro. Analysts suggest that without a major rift within the military, mass mobilization of citizens, or significant U.S. intervention, the chances of the opposition successfully removing Maduro are slim.

The Trump administration has indicated a readiness to exert pressure on Maduro. Since August, military assets have been increased in the region, with the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group redirected to the Caribbean on October 24, 2023. The U.S. has conducted operations targeting suspected drug vessels linked to Caracas, resulting in numerous strikes and casualties.

Should the U.S. decide to escalate its military strategy, options could include precision strikes within Venezuelan territory. With F-35s stationed in Puerto Rico, the Pentagon possesses various tactical choices. Covert operations are also on the table, with reports suggesting that the CIA has been authorized to operate in Venezuela. A failed attempt to recruit Maduro’s chief pilot illustrates the lengths to which the U.S. is willing to go in its efforts to undermine the regime.

As tensions rise, Maduro’s government has condemned what it calls “military provocation” from the U.S. Historical attempts to remove him, including a 2018 drone attack and a failed operation in 2020 involving U.S. soldiers, highlight the complexities of direct intervention. Such actions often lead to increased paranoia within regimes, resulting in intensified crackdowns.

Looking ahead, various scenarios could unfold depending on the interplay between U.S. actions and domestic conditions in Venezuela. A swift collapse of Maduro’s government seems unlikely. Instead, a gradual strategy involving maritime and aerial pressure, covert operations, targeted strikes, and political maneuvering may be more realistic.

Yet, this approach carries risks of entrenching hard-liners within the regime and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis already present in the country. Currently, approximately 7.9 million Venezuelans have fled, with over 6.7 million residing in neighboring Latin American and Caribbean nations.

Key indicators for future developments include the frequency of Russian military flights into Caracas, the potential expansion of U.S. military targets, and the level of opposition mobilization within Venezuela. Should credible signs of protest emerge, this could influence U.S. decisions regarding escalation. As the White House continues to frame its strategy within a counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism narrative, the trajectory may reveal a push towards incremental regime change, with uncertain outcomes for the Venezuelan people.