New Jersey Governor Race: Ciattarelli Gains Momentum in Early Voting

Early voting in New Jersey’s governor race has revealed a notable surge for Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, challenging incumbent Democrat Mikie Sherrill. As of now, Sherrill leads in banked ballots, but the Republican turnout is significantly higher compared to the previous gubernatorial election in 2021, where Ciattarelli lost to Democrat Phil Murphy by just 84,000 votes. If this trend continues, Election Night could prove to be highly competitive.

In the first five days of early voting, a total of 825,382 New Jerseyans cast their ballots, including both mail-in and in-person votes. The breakdown shows 449,190 Democrats, 230,907 Republicans, and 145,285 independents participating. This means Republicans face a deficit of over 219,000 votes to gain control of the State House before Election Day. While Sherrill’s early lead is substantial, it is far from an unassailable position.

Historically, New Jersey Democrats have dominated mail-in voting, but this year’s early voting patterns suggest a shift. In 2021, Murphy held a significant 47% advantage in mail-in ballots, whereas Sherrill currently enjoys only a 41% lead. The early in-person voting also indicates a tighter race, with Democrats holding just a 2% edge compared to a 12.2% advantage for Murphy in 2021.

County-specific trends indicate a growing enthusiasm among Republican voters. Areas traditionally viewed as Democratic strongholds, such as Hudson, Essex, and Union counties>, are seeing the highest levels of in-person early voting. Meanwhile, Ocean County, known for its Republican base, is showing strong support for Ciattarelli. Notably, the Lakewood Township, home to a significant and expanding Jewish population, has reported one of the highest early voting totals in the state. For the first time, the Vaad, a prominent group of local Orthodox rabbis, has united in endorsing Ciattarelli, which signals a notable shift in local political dynamics.

Republicans are also performing well in swing regions like Passaic County, which notably went red in the last presidential election. Republican turnout in this county has improved by 17 points compared to the same period in 2021. There is optimism among GOP supporters due to a recent rise in Latino endorsements for Ciattarelli, which could bolster his appeal in urban areas typically dominated by Democrats.

As Election Day approaches, Republicans are confident based on historical patterns. In 2021, Ciattarelli won Election Day voting by 12%, despite losing overall. With improved early turnout, he needs to achieve a slightly narrowed margin to claim victory this year.

The election will ultimately hinge on independent voters, who comprise approximately 35% of the electorate. According to a recent poll by Quinnipiac University, Ciattarelli currently holds a 6-point lead among independents, with 48% support compared to Sherrill’s 42%.

The final week of campaigning is critical, and while Sherrill began the race with a solid lead, Ciattarelli’s momentum is undeniable. As the candidates prepare for the final push, the dynamics of New Jersey’s political landscape continue to evolve, making for an intriguing Election Day ahead.