Jamaica Braces for 11-13% Economic Decline After Hurricane Melissa

Jamaica is confronting a significant economic downturn as the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa is expected to lead to a contraction of between 11% and 13% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) revealed these projections on Tuesday, highlighting the storm’s extensive impact on critical sectors. While the economy was on a growth trajectory, this disaster has reversed momentum, prompting forecasts of an overall contraction of 3% to 6% for the entire fiscal year of 2025/2026.

At a hybrid quarterly press briefing, PIOJ Director General Dr. Wayne Henry noted that Jamaica was poised for growth, with an estimated increase of 3.1% in the first half of the fiscal year prior to the hurricane’s arrival. “This growth was anticipated to continue throughout the second half,” he stated, emphasizing the abrupt shift caused by Hurricane Melissa, which registered as a Category 5 storm.

Widespread Damage and Economic Impact

The destructive force of Hurricane Melissa has severely affected nearly every sector of Jamaica’s economy. The storm inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure, including homes, power grids, roads, and water systems, while also impacting agricultural production. According to Dr. Henry, the seven parishes most affected account for 74% of the land utilized for domestic crop production, which includes a significant portion of livestock and export crop farming.

The losses extend beyond just crops; access roads and fishing gear have also been severely impacted. Dr. Henry has cautioned that the economic performance in the October to December 2025 quarter could be the worst since the April to June 2020 period during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the daunting challenges, there is a glimmer of hope for recovery. Dr. Henry expressed optimism regarding the nation’s economic rebound, stating, “The economy is expected to return to growth in the October to December 2026 quarter.” This recovery is contingent on the acceleration of repair and reconstruction efforts across the island.

The full extent of Hurricane Melissa’s impact will likely unfold in the months ahead, as Jamaica grapples with the immediate aftermath while also looking toward long-term recovery strategies.