Four Super Bowl Favorites Suffer Upsets in Week 9 of NFL

In a surprising turn of events during Week 9 of the NFL season, four of the top five Super Bowl contenders, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, faced losses. The Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions were all defeated, leaving the Philadelphia Eagles as the only team among the favorites to escape unscathed, having enjoyed a bye week. This situation marks a rare occurrence, with the last instance happening in the 2010 season when the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers finished as the sixth seed in the NFC.

As the league approaches the halfway point of the season, the losses raise questions about the consistency of these teams and their paths to the Lombardi Trophy. Below is an analysis of what transpired for each team in Week 9, shedding light on whether these defeats are merely bumps in the road or indicative of deeper issues.

Kansas City Chiefs Face Pressure in Loss to Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Buffalo Bills 28-21 on November 5, 2023, dropping their chances of winning the Super Bowl from 15.2% to 11.1%. The game showcased a critical factor: pressure. Bills quarterback Josh Allen executed a game plan that exploited weaknesses in the Chiefs’ offensive line.

Patrick Mahomes struggled under duress, completing just 15 of 34 passes for 250 yards, marking his first game with a sub-50% completion rate as a professional. The Bills pressured Mahomes on over 52% of his dropbacks, significantly impacting his performance. The Chiefs’ offensive line, which was heavily invested in during the offseason, failed to provide adequate protection, allowing Mahomes to be sacked multiple times.

Head coach Andy Reid’s decision-making also came under scrutiny. Facing a fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line, Reid opted for a field goal rather than attempting to convert, a choice that statistical models suggested cost the Chiefs valuable win probability points.

Colts Struggle Against Steelers’ Defense

The Indianapolis Colts lost 27-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, seeing their Super Bowl odds decrease from 13.0% to 10.1%. Quarterback Daniel Jones had a challenging outing, throwing three interceptions and losing two fumbles, directly contributing to the Colts’ six turnovers.

Despite a promising start, the game turned when Jones struggled to manage the Steelers’ aggressive defense. With Jones unable to establish a rhythm, the Colts were forced into predictable passing situations, allowing the Steelers’ pass rush to dominate. The Colts’ defense deserves recognition for limiting Pittsburgh’s scoring despite starting field positions averaging just 53 yards to the end zone.

Jones’ performance raised concerns about his ability to maintain the momentum the Colts had built earlier in the season. The lack of a complementary run game forced him to play from behind, ultimately leading to an uncharacteristic performance that could have lasting implications for the team.

Packers Fall to Panthers in a Disappointing Home Loss

In another unexpected outcome, the Green Bay Packers lost 16-13 to the Carolina Panthers. This defeat significantly impacted their Super Bowl odds, which dropped from 11.0% to 6.1%. The Packers, who had looked strong in previous weeks, failed to capitalize in the red zone, managing only one touchdown despite several opportunities.

Quarterback Jordan Love’s performance was hindered by key injuries to his receiving corps, limiting the options available to him. The game plan employed by the Panthers, including a strong running attack led by Rico Dowdle, effectively neutralized the Packers’ offense. The Panthers’ ability to convert crucial fourth downs and control the clock exemplified their strategic advantage throughout the game.

For the Packers, this loss raises critical questions about their ability to perform under pressure, especially as they prepare for upcoming matchups against stronger opponents.

Lions Stumble Against Vikings, Narrow Loss

The Detroit Lions suffered a close 27-24 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings, further complicating their position in the NFC North. Their chances to win the Super Bowl have now decreased from 8.7% to 5.4%. The Lions struggled to establish a run game, with their leading backs only managing 65 yards on 20 carries.

Quarterback Jared Goff faced significant pressure from the Vikings’ defense, which capitalized on Detroit’s inability to effectively run the ball. This forced Goff into uncomfortable passing situations, where he was sacked multiple times and failed to replicate his previous successes against the Vikings.

The Lions must reassess their offensive strategies as they move forward in the season, especially with divisional rivals looming on the schedule. General manager Brad Holmes faces tough decisions at the upcoming trade deadline as the team seeks to reinforce its playoff ambitions.

The outcomes of these Week 9 contests leave the landscape of the league wide open. With each team now having at least two losses, the race to the Super Bowl appears more competitive than ever. As the season progresses, the ability of these teams to respond to adversity will be tested, setting the stage for a thrilling second half of the season.