Trump’s Approval Rating Drops Among Supporters Amid Shutdown

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has begun to decline even among his core supporters, according to a recent poll. The YouGov and Economist survey, conducted from October 31 to November 3, 2023, reveals that Trump’s net approval among those who voted for him has fallen to +70, down four points from late summer figures. This decrease marks a shift from +74 in August and +73 in September, occurring during the ongoing government shutdown.

The implications of this decline are significant, as it hints at potential fractures in Trump’s political base at a critical juncture. Historically, his core supporters have remained loyal through various controversies. However, this erosion suggests that the adverse effects of the government shutdown, particularly cuts to benefits such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), may be starting to overshadow partisan loyalty for some.

The current government shutdown, which has recently become the longest in U.S. history, surpassing 36 days, has begun to impact public sentiment. Initially, Trump’s approval ratings seemed unaffected by the shutdown. However, as it extends into its second month, polling indicates a growing discontent among voters.

As a result of the shutdown, food assistance for millions of Americans has been severely curtailed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has utilized a $4.65 billion emergency fund to sustain SNAP, yet most of the 42 million recipients are receiving only about 65 percent of their usual benefits. Two federal judges ruled that halting payments was unlawful and ordered the government to resume full funding. In response, Trump defended his stance, asserting on Truth Social that benefits would resume “only when the radical left Democrats open up government.”

Democrats have criticized this approach, accusing Trump of attempting to “weaponize hunger” in budget negotiations. As hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain furloughed, GOP leaders are offering limited reversals of previous staff cuts, adding to the ongoing uncertainty. Recent polling from Newsweek indicates that Trump’s approval rating has reached an all-time low for his second term, with a net approval of -13 points, where 55 percent disapprove and 42 percent approve. This represents a decline from -10 points just two weeks earlier.

The YouGov/Economist polling further reveals that Trump’s approval rating for his handling of the shutdown among his supporters has dropped by seven points since early October, from +78 percent to +71 percent. Notably, 54 percent of Trump supporters believe SNAP benefits should continue during the shutdown. Among these supporters, 19 percent reported that they or their family members utilize SNAP benefits.

Trump’s net approval regarding jobs and the economy has also seen a decline, dropping by eight points since September, from +70 points to +62 points. Democratic strategist Matt McDermott commented on the situation, noting the rising economic anxiety across the country. “Voters are frustrated—and for good reason,” he stated. “Energy prices heading into winter are skyrocketing. Grocery prices are up across the board. Inflation has been exacerbated by Trump’s own tariffs, and the job market is weakening.”

McDermott attributed the government shutdown as a compounding factor. He explained, “With a historically long shutdown—where Republicans are cutting SNAP benefits even as courts demand those payments continue—it’s clear why even his own supporters are souring. Trump’s problem is simple: voters are struggling, and he’s acting like he doesn’t care.”

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the ongoing shutdown could significantly impact the economy, projecting a reduction of between one and two percentage points off U.S. GDP growth. In a letter issued last week, the nonpartisan agency stated that the economic repercussions will worsen the longer the impasse continues, estimating that the shutdown is costing the economy between $7 billion and $14 billion.

Alec Phillips, chief political economist at Goldman Sachs, noted in a recent report that the current shutdown is likely to have the greatest economic impact of any shutdown on record. McDermott emphasized that the prolonged nature of the shutdown could increase its political ramifications for Trump. “The longer this shutdown drags on, the more Trump looks out of touch with the economic pain he helped create,” he said.

As the shutdown persists, lawmakers are working to find a resolution to reopen the government. Another vote to end the shutdown is scheduled for this Friday. Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed cautious optimism, stating, “My hopes and expectations are always that we’re going to have enough Democrats to actually proceed, but I don’t know, we’ll see.”

The ongoing situation presents a challenging landscape for the Trump administration as it navigates the complexities of public opinion and economic distress.